Analysis of alternative pathways for reducing nitrogen oxide emissions

Strategies for reducing tropospheric ozone (O₃) typically include modifying combustion processes to reduce the formation of nitrogen oxides (NO_x) and applying control devices that remove NO_x from the exhaust gases of power plants, industrial sources and vehicles. For portions of the U.S., these traditional controls may not be sufficient to achieve the National Ambient Air Quality Standard for ozone. We apply the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) energy system model in a sensitivity analysis to explore whether additional NO_x reductions can be achieved through extensive electrification of passenger vehicles, adoption of energy efficiency and conservation measures within buildings, and deployment of wind and solar power in the electric sector. Nationally and for each region of the country, we estimate the NO_x implications of these measures. Energy efficiency and renewable electricity are shown to reduce NO_x beyond traditional controls. Wide-spread light duty vehicle electrification produces varied results, with NO_x increasing in some regions and decreasing in others. However, combining vehicle electrification with renewable electricity reduces NO_x in all regions.Implications: <i>State governments are charged with developing plans that demonstrate how air quality standards will be met and maintained. The results presented here provide an indication of the national and regional NO_x reductions available beyond traditional controls via extensive adoption of energy efficiency, renewable electricity, and vehicle electrification.</i>