Initial analysis of the spatial correlation between the incidence of COVID-19 and human development in the municipalities of the state of Ceará in Brazil

ABSTRACT: Objective: To analyze the spatial distribution of the incidence of COVID-19 and its correlation with the municipal human development index (MHDI) of the municipalities of Ceará. Methods: This is an ecological study with data recovered from the 15th epidemiological week and the 19th one of the year 2020 using the MHDI and the COVID-19 incidence coefficient for each municipality as variables. The univariate spatial correlation and the bivariate one were analyzed using the TerraView and GeoDa softwares. Results: The incidence of COVID-19 has spatial dependence with moderate positive correlation and the formation of high-high clusters located in the metropolitan region of Fortaleza and municipalities in the north region. The lowest incidence was a low-low cluster in the south and west regions. There was a positive bivariate correlation between MHDI and the incidence of COVID-19 with the formation of a cluster in the metropolitan region of Fortaleza. Conclusion: The uneven mapping of COVID-19 and its relationship with MHDI in Ceará can contribute to actions to regional combat the pandemic.