Model Predictions of the Steady-state High-risk HPV (hrHPV) Prevalence (prev.) Under the Base-case Vaccination Scenario.

Infection includes both transient and persistent infections (Pers.inf.). The prevalence refers to all females 10–70 years of age. The maximum prevalence (max) is the highest value of age-specific prevalence (cf. Figure 4). The effectiveness of HPV vaccination is defined as a relative reduction in the corresponding prevalence (post-vaccination vs pre-vaccination era). Base-case vaccination scenario: 80% vaccination coverage among women; wide range of type-specific protection against HPV16, HPV18, HPV31, HPV33, HPV45, and HPV51; 20 years duration of vaccine induced protection waning on average in the next 20 years.