Data and code from: Adaptive potential and genomic vulnerability of keystone forest tree species to climate change: A case study in Scots pine

A better understanding of the possible adaptive response and genomic
vulnerability of forest trees is needed to properly assist future forest
management and develop adequate resilience strategies to changing
environments. Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), a keystone species with
extensive distribution and a broad ecological niche, is expected to be
directly impacted by climate change due to fitness loss and genetic
maladaptation on a large spatial scale. Despite extensive studies that
have clarified the broad-scale history and genetic structure of the
species, understanding the genetic basis for the local adaptation and
genomic vulnerability of Scots pine remains incomplete. Here, we used
thousands of genotyped SNP markers in 39 natural populations (440 trees)
along a broad latitudinal gradient of species distribution to examine
molecular signatures of local adaptation. Specifically, this landscape
genomics approach aimed to assess fine-scale patterns of SNPs associated
with environmental gradients, predict vulnerability to climate change
using genomic offset, and evaluate the adaptive response of populations to
projected climate shifts. The variation of outlier SNPs, which exhibits
selection signatures between genetically very similar populations in the
analysed distribution range, was highly correlated with mean temperature,
a key limiting factor for the growth and survival of tree species.
Furthermore, our simulation results indicated a high genomic vulnerability
on a large spatial scale in P. sylvestris, with the time frame required to
close the offset gap by natural selection estimated to be in the range of
hundreds of years. The study evaluates current genomic offset and
indicates the optimal allelic frequency spectra to ensure resilience of
Scots pine populations. It highlights the potential of forest assisted
migration (FAM) as a management strategy, involving the relocation of
genotypes to areas with matching environmental conditions. However,
empirical validation through progeny tests of provenance regions and
careful selection of source populations are crucial before implementation.
By evaluating adaptive responses, the study adds to the discussion on the
long-term sustainability of forest ecosystems in the face of ongoing
environmental change.