Etudes électorales suisses (Selects) 2015, Selects 2015 Panel / Rolling cross-section study - Suisse

Abstract
---------------------------

The 2015 study consists of three main complementary components: The Post-election survey, the Panel / Rolling Cross-Section survey, and the Candidate survey. The main difference compared to previous studies relates to the mode of data collection; the main emphasis was now moved towards web interviews. The other main innovation was the addition of a four-wave panel survey. As in 2011, novel thematic modules of particular salience to researchers were included in the different surveys, while keeping the necessary continuity in the core questionnaire of the Post-election survey for comparison with previous waves.

Post-election survey:
The post-election survey consists of 5,337 web and telephone interviews. The survey was done in a sequential mixed mode with web offered as the first option: 82% responded in this way, while 18% responded by telephone. The sampling was based on a representative sample of 2’600 Swiss citizens with an oversampling of small cantons to have at least 80 interviews per canton. An additional oversampling was done in the cantons of Zurich, Geneva, and Ticino.

Panel / Rolling cross-section (RCS):
New for the 2015 study is a panel survey that studies the evolution of opinion and vote intention/choice during the different phases of the election cycle. Four waves were conducted: the first before the main campaign period, the second during the campaign, the third after the elections, and the fourth after the election of the Federal Council. 11’073 individuals responded to the first wave and 6’552 responded to the first three waves. The second wave was conducted as a Rolling cross-section, where around 120 individuals were interviewed daily during 61 days.
A media analysis was also conducted in the context of this survey.

Candidate survey:
The candidate survey was carried out among all candidates for the National Council and the Council of States in the framework of the Comparative Candidate Survey (CCS) project, based on the Round II questionnaire. The survey collects data on the biography, campaign activities, and policy position of the candidates. Among others, the information gathered makes possible the study of underlying factors of candidates’ electoral success, as well as of issues of representation and linkage between voters and elites.

Geographic coverage
---------------------------

Suisse alémanique et Suisse romande (CH)

Analysis unit
---------------------------

Individu

Universe
---------------------------

Swiss nationals aged 18 years or older

Kind of data
---------------------------

Données quantitatives

Sampling procedure
---------------------------

Simple random sample of 29'500 persons from the whole of Switzerland with Swiss nationality aged 18 or older on the day of the elections. The sample is based on a individual register sampling frame maintained by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

Mode of data collection
---------------------------

Questionnaire auto-administré Internet

Research instrument
---------------------------

Questionnaire

Response rate
---------------------------

Response rates per wave: First wave: 37% Second wave: 74% Third wave: 69% Fourth wave: 75% For the first wave, respondents were contacted by letter for a web interview. The first contact was a pre-notification letter with information on the survey and a flyer with past results. The second letter included the URL to participate in the survey, a personal login code, as well as a postal cheque of 10 Swiss francs that respondents could cash at any post office. Two reminders were also sent. At the end of the survey, respondents were asked to provide an email address for contact in subsequent waves. A raffle of 5 iPads, conditional on participating in the three first waves, was organized to boost enrollment in the panel as well as to reduce attrition. The second wave was conducted as a rolling cross-section survey (RCS) that started on August 17 and lasted for 60 days. The aim was to measure the evolution of opinions and vote intentions during the last phase of the campaign. Around 120 respondents participated each day. The invitations were sent by email with two reminders spaced close apart because to reduce the field time of each address. Pre-notification letters were sent weekly to inform about the email invitation to boost response rates. The third wave was conducted immediately after the federal elections. Those who had not provided an email address in the first wave were contacted by letter, the others by email. Additionally, a pre-notification letter was again sent for those invited by email. Finally, a fourth wave was conducted among all those who had participated in the third wave and for whom an email was available. This wave was timed to be just after the election of the Federal Council.

摘要
---------------------------
本2015年研究由三个主要互补组成部分构成：选举后调查、面板/滚动横截面调查以及候选人调查。与先前研究相比，主要差异在于数据收集方式；主要重点现在转向网络访谈。另一项主要创新是增加了四波面板调查。如同2011年，不同调查中包含了针对研究人员的特定主题模块，同时保持选举后调查核心问卷的必要连续性，以便与前几波进行对比。
选举后调查：
选举后调查包含5,337次网络和电话访谈。调查采用顺序混合模式进行，网络访谈作为首选：82%的受访者通过这种方式参与，而18%的受访者通过电话参与。抽样基于2,600名瑞士公民的代表样本，并对小型州进行超抽样，以确保每个州至少有80次访谈。在苏黎世、日内瓦和提契诺州也进行了额外超抽样。
面板/滚动横截面（RCS）：
2015年研究新增的面板调查旨在研究选举周期不同阶段的意见演变和投票意图/选择。共进行了四波调查：第一波在主要竞选期之前，第二波在竞选期间，第三波在选举之后，第四波在联邦委员会选举之后。第一波有11,073人参与，前三个波次有6,552人参与。第二波作为滚动横截面调查进行，在61天内每天对约120人进行访谈。
在此调查的背景下还进行了媒体分析。
候选人调查：
候选人调查在《比较候选人调查》（CCS）项目框架内对所有国民议会和联邦院候选人进行，基于第二轮问卷。该调查收集了候选人的生平、竞选活动和政策立场等数据。所收集的信息中，除其他外，还包括了候选人选举成功潜在因素的研究，以及选民与精英之间代表性及联系的问题。
地理覆盖范围
---------------------------
瑞士德语区和瑞士法语区（CH）
分析单元
---------------------------
个人
总体
---------------------------
18岁或以上的瑞士公民
数据类型
---------------------------
定量数据
抽样程序
---------------------------
从整个瑞士的29,500名具有瑞士国籍的18岁或以上公民中抽取的简单随机样本。样本基于由瑞士联邦统计局（FSO）维护的个人登记抽样框架。
数据收集方式
---------------------------
互联网自动问卷
研究工具
---------------------------
问卷
响应率
---------------------------
每波次的响应率：第一波：37%；第二波：74%；第三波：69%；第四波：75%。对于第一波，受访者通过信件被邀请进行网络访谈。第一次联系是一封包含调查信息和过去结果的宣传册的通知信。第二封信包含参与调查的URL、个人登录码，以及可在任何邮局兑换的10瑞士法郎的支票。还发送了两次提醒。在调查结束时，受访者被要求提供用于后续波次联系的电子邮件地址。为提高面板的参与度并减少流失，还组织了一场抽奖，奖品为5台iPad，条件是参与前三波调查。第二波作为滚动横截面调查（RCS）进行，于8月17日开始，持续60天。目的是测量竞选最后阶段的意见和投票意图的演变。每天约有120名受访者参与。邀请通过电子邮件发送，并间隔很短地发送两次提醒，以减少每个地址的现场时间。每周发送预先通知信，告知电子邮件邀请，以提高响应率。第三波在联邦选举后立即进行。未在第一波提供电子邮件地址的人通过信件联系，其他人通过电子邮件联系。此外，再次为通过电子邮件邀请的人发送预先通知信。最后，对在第三波中参与且提供电子邮件地址的所有人进行了第四波调查。该波次在联邦委员会选举后进行。