Data and model repository for Agrimate analysis for study "Multi-breadbasket failures, climate change and risks for crop prices and regional consumption"

This repository contains the input data ({crop}_input.zip), raw ({crop}_output.zip) and processed (processed.zip) output data, and the version of the Agrimate model (agrimate.zip) for the associated the study. We have three different crops: wheat (wheat), maize (maize), soybean (soybean)We two different scenarios: historical climate conditions (his) and +2°C climate conditions (2p0) For each crop-climate setup, we have 10,000 simulations = [1, 2, 3, ..., 10000] {crop}_input.zip Contains files necessary to run Agrimate model harvest anomly files: harvest-anomalies_crop={crop}_source={scenario}-{simulation}.csv harvest trend files: harvest-trends_crop={crop}_source={scenario}-{simulation}..csv food production, consumption, export, imports per country for average baseline 2019-2021 food-balance_baseline=2019-2021_crop={crop}.csv trade flows between countries for average baseline 2019-2021 trade-flows_baseline=2019-2021_crop={crop}.csv regional parameters for consumption elasticitiy, demand elasticity, and storage-to-use ratio averaged for 2019-2021 parameters_baseline=2019-2021_crop={crop}_source=empirical.csv output.zip raw Contains raw output files from Agrimate, which contains among others harvest and consumption per macro region or transaction price between macro regions on sub-annual time resolution (24 time steps per year) for the respective scenario and realisation. Each simulation has a 7-year (=168 time steps) spin-up period at the beginning, where the model dynamically evolve to its dynamic unperturbed baseline (year -7 until -1). In year 0 region are affected as described in the paper. raw output agrimate_mb_baseline-2019-2021_crop-{crop}_{scenario}-{simulation}.nc processed.zip Contains processed output files from Agrimate as netcdf. mbf_summary_long.nc consumption_abs_change_global global annual consumption loss compared to baseline measured in 1000 ton consumption_abs_change_global_mcal_pc_yr global annual consumption loss compared to baseline measured in million calories per person per year consumption_rel_change_global global annual consumption loss in relative terms to baseline consumption_abs_change_region regional annual consumption loss compared to baseline measured in 1000 ton consumption_abs_change_region_mcal_pc_yr regional annual consumption loss compared to baseline measured in million calories per person per year consumption_rel_change_region regional annual consumption loss in relative terms to baseline harvest_abs_change_global global harvest change compared to baseline measured in 1000 t in year 0 harvest_relative_change_global global harvest change in relative terms to baseline in year 0 harvest_abs_change_region regional harvest change compared to baseline measured in 1000 t in year 0 harvest_relative_change_region regional harvest change in relative terms to baseline in year 0 max_world_price maximum bi-weekly price for the respective period in USD per ton mean_world_price mean price for the respective period in USD per ton number_of_affected_regions for each crop-scenario-simulation-tuple the number of affected regions potential dimensions: crop scenario number (number of simulation) region period (which year period is used) risk_summary_long_periods_percs.nc value: med = median | lo = 5th percentile | hi = 95th percentile risk_his_{value} Historical regional annual consumption risk risk_2p0_{value} Regional annual consumption risk under +2°C climate conditions delta_risk_{value} Regional annual consumption risk change from historical climate to +2°C climate conditions risk_h_point treshold of historical regional consumption risk for the respective percentile risk_2_point treshold of regional consumption risk under +2°C climate conditions for the respective percentile delta_point treshold of regional consumption risk change for the respective percentile potential dimensions: period (which year period is used) percentile (which percentile of the distribution is used) variable (measured in 1000 ton, measured in million calories per person per year, measured in relative terms to baseline) crop region