Overall impact of simulated outbreaks in Kutupalong-Balukhali Expansion Site, assuming no effective novel interventions or behavior change.

Total number of people infected, total hospitalizations, and total deaths represent the final cumulative counts after the simulated outbreak has run its full course, among simulations that resulted in outbreaks of at least 1,000 people infected. Maximum daily incident counts are the maximum incident counts of people infected and hospitalization on a single day across the full outbreak, occurring at the outbreak’s peak. We estimated the daily hospitalization capacity needed in beds using incident hospitalizations and assuming hospitalized individuals remain hospitalized for a mean of 11.5 days (95% CI, 8.0–17.3) [16]. We estimated the largest number of beds needed at any time over the course the outbreak, which we report as the maximum capacity needed. From the daily bed capacity needed over time, we also estimate the day on which this capacity needed exceeds the existing capacity of 340 beds, which we report as the day on which hospitalization need exceeds capacity.