Data from: Trophic reorganization of animal communities under climate change

Aim This study uses a novel modeling approach to understand global trophic
structure transformations under 21st-century climate changes. The goal is
to project and understand the impacts of climate change on trophic
dynamics, guiding future research and conservation efforts. Location
14,520 terrestrial grid cells of 1° x 1° globally. Taxon Trophic
structures were assessed for 15,265 species, including 9,993 non-marine
birds and 5,272 terrestrial mammals, across 9 predefined trophic guilds.
Methods A spatially explicit community trophic structure model, based on
an extreme gradient boosting algorithm (Xgboost), was used. The model was
trained with 1961-1990 climatic data and projected changes according to
three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSP2-45, SSP3-70, and SSP5-85.
Results The Xgboost model showed high predictive accuracy (86%,
kappa=0.91). Projections indicated many global regions are transitioning
in their trophic structures due to climate changes from 1990 to 2018, with
decreases in species carrying capacity in 5.5% of cells and increases in
9.8%. Predictions for mid- and late-21st century under climate scenarios
suggest significant reorganization, with notable impacts in regions such
as the Amazon Basin, Central Africa, and Southeast Asia. Under SSP5-85,
17.1% of cells may face reductions in carrying capacity, while 41.1% could
see increases, affecting thousands of species. Main conclusions Climate
change is profoundly reorganizing global trophic communities, with
significant shifts in species carrying capacity across different
guilds.  Tropical regions and high northern latitudes are most
affected, with some species facing collapses and others finding new
opportunities. These changes highlight the need to integrate community
trophic structure models into biodiversity conservation strategies,
offering a comprehensive view of climate change impacts on trophic
networks.