松毛虫复杂性动态变化规律及性信息素监测技术

项目用非线性动力学的研究方法和理论，研究了松毛虫种群复杂性动态变化规律，深入揭示了松毛虫种群动态的特征，明确了松毛虫种群动态监测和预测的技术路线和方法。提取松毛虫性信息素，通过化学分析和室内外生物测定，鉴定了云南松毛虫和思茅松毛虫性信息素的结构，补充完善了落叶松毛虫和赤松毛虫诱芯林间应用的最佳性信息素成分及比例，研究和完善我国几种主要松毛虫信息通讯系统。系统研究了利用性信息素进行松毛虫大面积监测的方法和技术，建立了相应的预测模型，研制了基于 GIS的智能型松毛虫监测预测和决策支持系统软件。最后形成松毛虫种群监测的基础理论和配套技术体系，制定了有关管理办法和标准，进行了全国 25个省（区、市）范围的大面积推广应用，解决了松毛虫早期监测和及时防治的关键技术，应用区 5年挽回林木直接经济损失 108486万元。 研究结果表明马尾松毛虫 2、3代分化主要影响当代的数量，与以后各代数量和分化前的种群数量无明显的相关。中等以上的分化率常引起松毛虫的大发生。影响 2、3代分化的主要气候因子是 7月份的气温。干旱不仅影响当代松毛虫的动态，更重要的是通过影响寄主，从而影响到以后世代的松毛虫动态。 研究发现松林节肢动物群落平均多样性特别是潜伏期多样性越大 ，群落越稳定 ，各种群数量比例越均匀，系统越稳定。食叶类群多样性对整个群落的多样性和稳定性起重要的作用。捕食类群对刺吸类群控制作用较大，而寄生类群对食叶类群的控制作用较大，中性昆虫在群落中也有一定的作用。松毛虫不同发生阶段中，上升阶段多样性最大，如此时多样性足够大，可有效地抑制松毛虫的暴发，否则松毛虫将在竟争中占优势地位，数量猛增，导致大发生。 马尾松毛虫暴发呈现非线性、突变性等特点，发生的时间动态为减幅波动，其周期性不显著，而具有一定的复杂性，这种类型可以是减幅波动、有限周期或弱混沌，波动主要由系统内因引起。通常马尾松毛虫种群动态不存在混沌现象，但噪音对松毛虫种群动态具有很大的影响，可以将其从非混沌状态变为混沌。马尾松毛虫的代间种群动态为第一级密度相关，前一代的虫口密度与下一代的虫口密度相关性最强，所以前一代预测下一代是最可靠的。利用信息素进行松毛虫监测可通过前一代成虫的诱捕数量预测下一代幼虫数量，且具有灵敏便捷的特点，为松毛虫地面监测的最佳方法。

This project adopted the research methods and theories of nonlinear dynamics to investigate the complex dynamic variation patterns of pine caterpillar populations, deeply revealed the characteristics of pine caterpillar population dynamics, and clarified the technical routes and methods for population dynamic monitoring and forecasting of pine caterpillars.

The project extracted sex pheromones from pine caterpillars, identified the structures of the sex pheromones of Yunnan pine caterpillars and Simao pine caterpillars via chemical analysis and indoor-outdoor bioassays, supplemented and optimized the optimal sex pheromone components and ratios for the field application of lures of larch pine caterpillars and red pine caterpillars, and studied and improved the information communication systems of several major pine caterpillar species in China. It systematically studied the methods and technologies for large-scale monitoring of pine caterpillars using sex pheromones, established corresponding forecasting models, and developed GIS-based intelligent pine caterpillar monitoring, forecasting and decision support system software. Finally, it established the basic theory and supporting technical system for pine caterpillar population monitoring, formulated relevant management measures and standards, carried out large-scale promotion and application across 25 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government in China, solved the key technologies for early monitoring and timely control of pine caterpillars, and saved direct economic losses of 1,084,860,000 RMB for forestry within 5 years in the application areas.

The research results showed that the differentiation between the 2nd and 3rd generations of Masson pine caterpillars mainly affects the population size of the current generation, and has no significant correlation with the population sizes of subsequent generations or the pre-differentiation population size. A differentiation rate of medium or higher often leads to large-scale outbreaks of pine caterpillars. The main climatic factor affecting the differentiation between the 2nd and 3rd generations is the temperature in July. Drought not only affects the dynamics of the current generation of pine caterpillars, but more importantly, affects the dynamics of pine caterpillars in subsequent generations by altering the condition of their host plants.

The study found that the higher the average diversity of the arthropod community in pine forests, especially the diversity in the latent period, the more stable the community is, and the more uniform the population size ratios of each species are, leading to a more stable ecosystem. The diversity of folivorous groups plays an important role in the diversity and stability of the entire community. Predatory groups have a stronger controlling effect on sap-sucking groups, while parasitic groups have a stronger controlling effect on folivorous groups, and neutral insects also play a certain role in the community. Among the different occurrence stages of pine caterpillars, the rising stage has the highest diversity. If the diversity at this stage is sufficiently high, it can effectively inhibit the outbreak of pine caterpillars; otherwise, pine caterpillars will gain a dominant position in competition, their population size will surge, leading to large-scale outbreaks.

The outbreaks of Masson pine caterpillars exhibit characteristics such as nonlinearity and abruptness. Their temporal dynamics show damped oscillations, with no significant periodicity but a certain degree of complexity; this type of dynamic can be damped oscillation, limited cycle, or weak chaos, and the oscillations are mainly caused by internal factors of the ecosystem. Generally, there is no chaotic phenomenon in the population dynamics of Masson pine caterpillars, but noise has a significant impact on their population dynamics, which can shift the population from a non-chaotic state to a chaotic one. The intergenerational population dynamics of Masson pine caterpillars are first-order density-dependent: the population density of the previous generation has the strongest correlation with that of the next generation, so forecasting the next generation's population size based on the previous generation is the most reliable method. Using pheromones for pine caterpillar monitoring can predict the number of larvae in the next generation based on the number of trapped adults in the previous generation, and it has the characteristics of sensitivity and convenience, making it the optimal method for ground monitoring of pine caterpillars.

搜集汇总

背景与挑战

背景概述

该数据集聚焦于松毛虫种群复杂性动态变化规律及性信息素监测技术的研究，通过非线性动力学方法揭示了种群动态特征，并鉴定了多种松毛虫的性信息素结构。研究建立了基于GIS的监测预测系统，在全国范围内推广应用，有效解决了松毛虫早期监测和防治的关键技术问题，具有重要的理论和实践价值。