"了解趋势——年龄、时期和队列对中国结婚年龄和结婚率的影响分析"

在快速的社会变革中，中国年轻人的婚姻行为不断朝着婚姻的推迟和衰落的方向发展。哪些因素促成了中国年轻人婚姻行为的集体变化？本研究采用2003—2021年中国综合社会调查横断面资料和分层年龄-时期-队列交叉分类随机效应模型，研究影响婚姻行为的因素。结果表明：女性受教育程度和社会阶层与初婚年龄呈正相关，与结婚概率呈负相关。时期效应表明，宏观经济增长与初婚年龄呈正相关;然而，在较低社会阶层中，工资增长率与初婚年龄呈负相关，而在农民和受教育程度较低的个人中，工资增长率与结婚概率呈正相关。还观察到队列之间的差异：与1960年代和1970年代出生的人相比，在独生子女政策时代（1980年至1990年之间）出生的人在30岁时的结婚率显着下降。延迟结婚和降低结婚率与性别、教育水平和社会阶层等社会决定因素高度相关。队列效应和时期效应揭示了中国个体婚姻行为的深刻社会经济和政策影响。

Against the backdrop of rapid societal transformation, the marriage behaviors of young people in China have been increasingly characterized by delayed marriage and declining marriage rates. What factors have contributed to this collective shift in the marriage behaviors of Chinese youth? This study employs cross-sectional data from the China General Social Survey (CGSS) spanning 2003 to 2021, paired with a stratified age-period-cohort cross-classified random effects model, to investigate the factors influencing marriage behaviors. The results demonstrate that women’s educational attainment and social class are positively correlated with age at first marriage, and negatively correlated with marriage probability. Period effects reveal that macroeconomic growth is positively associated with age at first marriage; however, among individuals in lower social strata, wage growth rate is negatively correlated with age at first marriage, while among farmers and those with lower educational attainment, wage growth rate exhibits a positive correlation with marriage probability. Differences across cohorts are also identified: compared to individuals born in the 1960s and 1970s, those born during the one-child policy era (between 1980 and 1990) show a significantly lower marriage rate at age 30. Delayed marriage and reduced marriage probability are highly correlated with social determinants such as gender, educational level, and social class. Cohort effects and period effects uncover the profound socioeconomic and policy influences on individual marriage behaviors in China.

搜集汇总

背景与挑战

背景概述

该数据集基于2003—2021年中国综合社会调查横断面资料，采用分层年龄-时期-队列交叉分类随机效应模型，分析中国年轻人婚姻行为的变化趋势。研究发现，女性受教育程度和社会阶层与初婚年龄呈正相关、与结婚概率呈负相关，同时揭示了宏观经济增长、工资增长率以及独生子女政策等时期和队列效应对婚姻年龄和结婚率的影响。数据集突出了性别、教育水平和社会阶层等社会决定因素在婚姻推迟和结婚率下降中的关键作用。