Supplementary Material for: Epidemiological trends of idiopathic epilepsy in Asia, 1990-2021: An analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Objective: To evaluate the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with idiopathic epilepsy in Asian region from 1990 to 2021, explore the influencing factors, and assess differences between countries, while also predicting prevalence and incidence trends of idiopathic epilepsy in Asian region up to 2036.
Methods: Based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, Joinpoint regression was used to analyze temporal trends. The age-period-cohort model was employed to analyze the effects of different factors. Das Gupta's decomposition method was used to evaluate the contributions of demographic and epidemiological factors. Data envelopment analysis was performed to assess the relationship between disease burden and socio-demographic index (SDI). ARIMA and Bayesian APC models were used to predict incidence rates from 2022 to 2036 based on historical trends.
Results: In 2021, the incidence of idiopathic epilepsy in Asia was 1,494,996.042 (95% UI: 1,096,849.405~1,886,986.598), with an age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of 34.035/100,000. Saudi Arabia had the highest ASIR (67.05/100,000), while Democratic People's Republic of Korea had the lowest (21.737/100,000). From 1990 to 2021, the global ASIR of idiopathic epilepsy showed an overall increasing trend with fluctuations. The increase in incidence was mainly driven by population growth. The incidence rate was generally higher in males than in females. With increasing SDI, the DALY rate generally decreased, but there is still room for improvement in some countries. The degree of inequality between high and low SDI regions decreased but still exists to some extent. Based on the identified historical patterns and model projections, the incidence rate is expected to continue rising through 2036.
Conclusions: The burden of idiopathic epilepsy in Asia shows an increasing trend with significant regional differences. Attention should be focused on high-risk populations, strengthening the balanced allocation of medical resources between regions, and formulating targeted prevention and control strategies.