Estimating epidemiological parameters of highly pathogenic avian influenza in common terns using exact Bayesian inference

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is a contagious viral disease that has led to the culling of huge amounts of poultry as well as the mortality of countless wild birds. The recent panzootic that began in 2021 has been particularly notable for its devastating effect on seabird populations around the globe. Whilst transmission of HPAI within poultry has been relatively well studied, the recency of the current panzootic, combined with data collection challenges, means that much less is known about key epidemiological parameters, such as reproduction numbers, R0, of HPAI in wild populations. We develop methodology to carry out exact Bayesian parameter inference using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo applied to mortality data in the form of daily carcass counts over the duration of subsequent outbreaks in a colony of common terns, Sterna hirundo, in 2022 and 2023. We estimate R0 to be 3.7 (95% CI 2.3; 7.2) in 2022, and 3.2 (95% CI 1.7; 7.0) in 2023. The probability of mortalit..., , # Estimating epidemiological parameters of highly pathogenic avian influenza in common terns using exact Bayesian inference

Dataset DOI: [10.5061/dryad.ncjsxkt8g](10.5061/dryad.ncjsxkt8g)

## Description of the data and file structure

These data are part of those collected in an ongoing individual-based longitudinal population study. Additional data are likely to be available, and we are often very happy to collaborate provided that none of our own staff or students is working on a conflicting project should you want to use these data, please get in touch.

Prof. Dr. Sandra Bouwhuis

Institute of Avian Research, Wilhelmshaven, Germany

[[e-mail]](mailto:[e-mail])

### Files and variables

#### File: Banter_See_dead_birds_2022___2023_dryad.xlsx

**Description:** 

This is the file containing the date of collection of each bird carcass during the highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in 2022 and 2023.

##### Variables

* birdID: A ...,