Developing hierarchical density-structured models to study the national-scale dynamics of an arable weed

Population dynamics can be highly variable in the face of environmental heterogeneity, and understanding this variation is central in the study of ecology. Robust management decisions require that we understand how populations respond to management at a range of scales, and under a broad suite of conditions. Population models are potentially valuable tools in addressing this challenge. However, without adequate data, models can fail to produce useful results. Populations of arable weeds are particularly problematic in this respect, as they are widespread and their dynamics are extremely variable. Owing to the inherent cost of collecting data, most studies of weed population dynamics are derived from localized experiments under a small range of environmental conditions, limiting the extent to which variance in population dynamics can be measured. Density-structured models provide a route to rapid, large-scale analysis of population dynamics, and can expand the scale of ecological models ...