Downscaled_CMIP3_Temperature_Precipitation_Projections_over_a_hydroclimaic_transect_of_Michigan

Climate change will affect global temperatures and the distribution and amount of precipitation, which are expected to impact regional hydrology and water resources in many parts of the world. It is therefore vital to quantify characteristics of the change and the corresponding uncertainty. A substantial amount of recent research has relied on climate projections obtained with General Circulation Models (GCMs) to assess climate change. However, such modeling results typically carry biases that must be reduced in some optimal fashion before any conclusions about robustness of climate change can be drawn. To minimize model- and scenario-specific biases, we combined information provided by the 3rd phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project database with a Bayesian Weighted Averaging method. Specifically, the results of 12 GCMs for three emission scenarios B1, A1B, and A2 were downscaled for mid- (2046–2065) and end-century (2081–2100) intervals, at six WebMET locations that represent a hydroclimatic transect of Michigan. Furthermore, hourly results of future climate are generated by an advanced weather generator using the information from the combine GCMs ensemble.