GLOBAL WATER SCARCITY TO 2060: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY AND FINANCIAL SYSTEM, RISKS, PROSPECTS AND STRATEGIC SOLUTIONS

This study examines how escalating water scarcity may influence production, trade, public finance and financial stability through 2060. It employs a structured narrative review of international assessments and Uzbekistan-focused policy literature, combined with a transparent qualitative scenario framework. The analysis identifies interconnected transmission channels: agricultural yield volatility, industrial interruptions, energy-system constraints, infrastructure losses, inflationary pressures, sovereign fiscal burdens and credit risk. The evidence does not justify a single deterministic estimate of global losses in 2060; outcomes depend on emissions, water governance, investment and adaptation. A comparative risk matrix and two illustrative visualizations support a policy framework integrating water-use efficiency, transparent allocation, wastewater reuse, climate-resilient investment and financial-sector stress testing. Uzbekistan illustrates the importance of irrigation modernization and transboundary coordination. The paper argues that water security should be treated as a macro-financial resilience priority rather than solely an environmental issue.