Cascade Response Pathways of Cropland Change under Driving Factors in Northeast China based on multiple techniques

Human, climatic, and geographic factors drive cropland dynamics, necessitating analysis of their intricate response mechanisms to safeguard cropland security. Traditional methods often emphasize direct factor–cropland relationships while neglecting cascading effects. Taking Jilin Province in northern China as an example, we explored the cascading response pathways of 13 factors affecting croplands during 2010–2019. This approach employs partial least squares structural equation modeling, an optimal parameter geographic detector, geographically weighted regression, and multisource remote sensing data. We find that natural vegetation degrades significantly, with human activity zones expanding sharply. Relative to 2010, cropland in 2019 recorded a net loss of 1.39% (1,257.7 ha) to built-up land, alongside gains of 4.99% (4,518.8 ha) from grass and 3.01% (2,720.2 ha) from forest. In the western, central, and eastern plains, grassland was predominantly converted to cropland, cropland to built-up land, and forestland to cropland, respectively. Climate (temperature and greenhouse gas concentrations) exerts a primary influence on cropland by regulating human activities, with corresponding path coefficients of 0.664 (Climate→Human) and 0.571 (Human→Cropland), respectively. In the western plains, climate directly exerts a strong influence on grassland-to-cropland conversion. Cropland changes in the central-western regions were dominated by elevation, slope, and temperature; those in the central-eastern areas were driven by precipitation, population size, population density, gross domestic product, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; while across the entire region, the key drivers were greenhouse gases, evapotranspiration, relative humidity, land surface temperature, and leaf area index. The proposed framework for disentangling cascading pathways between cropland and its drivers provides implications for food security in analogous regions worldwide.