Elasticity in the Colorado River Basin Using the Budyko Method

This project used Budyko-based methods to determine the elasticity and sensitivity of 29 subbasins in the Colorado River Basin. Elasticity and sensitivity are metrics used to determine the relative expected changes in runoff given changes in precipitation and temperature, respectively. We used publicly available data to determine long term averages for temperature, precipitation, and runoff for principal Colorado River subbasins. Given those data, we used Budyko-based methods to estimate the elasticity and sensitivity of each subbasin to changes in temperature and precipitation. We determined the aridity index of each subbasin and Budyko parameter (w), which aggregates watershed storage characteristics. Subcatchments located in the Upper Basin, driven mostly by snowmelt, have a lower aridity index and higher w value than those in the Lower Basin, driven by monsoonal storm events. The Paria and the Little Colorado River subbasins are particularly sensitive to changes in precipitation and temperature. To identify the initialization of direct human impacts, we used a double mass curve break point analysis on a single subcatchment. Two breakpoints were identified, 1963 and 1988, corresponding to human impact and climate change, respectively.

This data resource includes a document and power point reporting the key findings of this work. We include the code, input, and output files used to perform analyses, all of which are described in the readme.