Dataset for: Emerging Lightning Patterns Amplify Boreal Wildfire Expansion Under Global Warming

This dataset contains model data and other supporting data used to analyze the contribution of lightning activity to the expansion of Siberian wildfires from 2010 to 2023, as well as future projections under different climate scenarios. The data were generated using two complementary modeling frameworks: a process-based fire-vegetation model (SEIB-SPITFIRE) and a machine learning model (XGBoost). Two numerical experiments (STD, Detrend) were conducted to isolate the effect of long-term lightning trend on burned area and associated carbon emissions. Data Structure ML_Datasets/ This folder contains the burned area simulations produced by the machine learning model under different experimental setups. Total_STD_prediction.csv – Burned area from the STD experiment (baseline). Total_Detrend_prediction.csv – Burned area from the Detrend experiment (increasing long-term trend removed). SEIB-SPITFIRE/ This folder contains outputs from the SEIB-SPITFIRE model, including fuel loads, burned area, ignition frequency, and CO₂ emissions. The subfolders correspond to two numerical experiments: LightVary/ – Outputs from the STD experiment 5_wo.npz – Total dead fuel load 50_A_b.npz – Burned area 75_mass_leafin.npz – Live leaf fuel load 76_mass_trunkin.npz – Live trunk fuel load 78_mass_availablein.npz – Live branch fuel load 88_Nil.npz – Lightning ignition frequency 89_Nih.npz – Anthropogenic ignition frequency LightDetrend/ – Outputs from the Detrend experiment (same file structure as above) CO₂ Emissions (derived from fuel loads and burned area) LightVary_emiCO2.npz – CO₂ emissions under the STD experiment LightDetrend_emiCO2.npz – CO₂ emissions under the Detrend experiment Lightning ignition counts lightlgn.npz – Lightning ignition counts under the STD experiment lightlgn_detrend.npz – Lightning ignition counts under the Detrend experiment Fire Weather Index (FWI) data 2010_2023_fwi_JRA.npz – Daily FWI over Siberia from 2010 to 2023 (JRA-55 reanalysis) 2015_2100_fwi_CESM2_585.npz – Projected FWI from CESM2-WACCM under SSP5-8.5 (2015–2100) 2015_2100_fwi_UK_126.npz – Projected FWI from UKESM1-0-LL under SSP1-2.6 (2015–2100) 2015_2100_fwi_UK_585.npz – Projected FWI from UKESM1-0-LL under SSP5-8.5 (2015–2100) Lightning fire observations (BoLtFire dataset) BoLtFire_lightning_fires_area.npz – Gridded lightning-ignited burned area from the BoLtFire dataset BoLtFire_lightning_fires_ignition.npz – Gridded lightning ignition counts from the BoLtFire dataset Atmospheric variables (for lightning activity analysis) cape_processed_wildfires.txt – Convective available potential energy (CAPE), used to explain lightning increases total_liquid_440_processed_wildfires.txt – Total hydrometeor content at 440 hPa, used to explain lightning increases Contact For questions or collaborations, please contact: [e-mail]