Treasury yield curve in the U.S. June 2024

As of October 16, 2024, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.04 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.96 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in 2022 and 2023.What are government bonds?Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies).Inverted yield curvesWhen investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

截至2024年10月16日，美国十年期政府债券的收益率为4.04%，而两年期债券的收益率为3.96%。这表明了收益率曲线的倒置现象，即长期到期债券的收益率低于短期债券，反映了投资者对长期利率下降的预期。因此，在未来的金融市场不确定性下，长期债务持有者面临的风险更大。市场的不确定性可通过考虑美国政府在2006年至2021年期间短期收益率的波动以及长期下降趋势来观察，在此期间，国债收益率曲线在2022年和2023年显著上升。何为政府债券？政府债券，亦称‘主权’或‘国债’，是政府为筹集资金用于政府支出而发行的金融工具。投资者向政府提供一定数额的资金（即‘面值’），在未来指定的时间（即‘到期日’）偿还。此外，政府还会定期支付利息（称为‘息票支付’）。一旦首次发行，政府债券便可在金融市场进行交易，这意味着其价值会随时间波动（尽管其面值和息票支付保持不变）。由于所涉国家拥有稳定的经济和政治体系，投资者对政府债券情有独钟，认为它们是非常安全的投资。因此，在经济动荡时期，投资者可能愿意接受负的整体回报，以使资金有一个安全的避风港。例如，一旦将市场价值与剩余利息支付和面值的总和进行比较，投资者在2014年至2021年期间已愿意接受两年期德国政府债券的负回报。相反，如果基础经济和政治结构脆弱，投资者会要求更高的回报来补偿他们承担的更高风险。因此，新兴市场如巴西的债券收益率持续高于美国（以及其他发达经济体）。倒置收益率曲线当投资者对金融未来感到担忧时，可能导致所谓的‘倒置收益率曲线’。倒置收益率曲线是指投资者为短期债券支付的价格高于长期债券，表明他们对长期金融状况缺乏信心。历史上，在过去的五次美国经济衰退之前，收益率曲线都曾发生倒置。上一次美国收益率曲线倒置发生在2019年的几个短暂时刻，这一趋势一直持续到美联储在该年多次降低利率。然而，下一次经济衰退的最终触发因素是未预见的、外生的全球冠状病毒（COVID-19）大流行，这表明此类非正式指标可能同样基于巧合和因果关系。