Quantifying Sustainability and Drivers of Aspen Regeneration and Recruitment in Arizona 2020-2022

Quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) ecosystems are highly valued in the southwestern United States because of the ecological, economic, and aesthetic benefits they provide. Aspen has experienced extensive mortality in recent decades, and there is evidence that many areas in Arizona, USA lack adequate recruitment to replace dying overstory trees. Maintaining sustainable levels of regeneration and recruitment (i.e., juveniles) is critical for promoting aspen ecosystem resilience and adaptive capacity, but questions remain about which factors currently limit juvenile aspen and which strategies are appropriate for managing aspen in an increasingly uncertain future. To fill these critical knowledge gaps, we sampled aspen populations across Arizona and collected data representing a suite of biotic and abiotic factors that potentially influence juvenile aspen. Specifically, we addressed two questions: (1) Is aspen sustainably regenerating and recruiting in Arizona? and (2) Which biotic and abiotic factors significantly influence aspen regeneration and recruitment? We found that many aspen populations in Arizona lack sustainable levels of juvenile aspen, and the status of recruitment was especially dire, with 40% of study plots lacking a single recruiting stem. Aspen regeneration was less abundant on warmer, drier sites, highlighting the threat that a rapidly warming climate poses to aspen sustainability. Aspen recruitment was significantly more abundant in areas with recent fire and had a strong positive relationship with fire severity. The most important limiting factors for aspen recruitment were ungulate browse, especially by introduced Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus canadensis nelsoni), and the invasive insect, oystershell scale (Lepidosaphes ulmi). We conclude with a discussion of how management can promote sustainability of aspen populations by addressing the array of threats that aspen faces, such as a warming climate, chronic ungulate browse, and outbreaks of oystershell scale.