Can trait-based analyses of distribution change be transferred to new geographic areas?

Anthropogenic environmental change is having a major impact on biodiversity. By identifying traits that correlate with species range change, comparative studies can shed light on the driving mechanisms of this change; but such studies will be more useful for conservation if they have true predictive power – i.e., if their trait-based models can be transferred to new regions. We tested the ability of trait-based models to predict plant distribution change across seven geographic regions (Flanders and six regions in Britain) that varied in terms of land-cover and species composition. We discovered that transferability between regions was positively correlated with land cover similarity, and therefore conclude that trait-based models have potential for predicting broad scale changes in species distributions in regions that share similar land-cover composition. This poster was presented at the 6th International Conference of the International Biogeography Society in Miami in January 2013.