Monthly prevalence of dengue in Bangladesh (January 2008 - September 2023)

Dengue fever has been a persistent public health concern in Bangladesh, with a recent surge in cases. This secondary data based study utilizes AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models to predict dengue prevalence in Bangladesh. Data was sourced from the Institute of Epidemiology Disease Control and Research and Directorate General of Health Services. STROBE Guideline for observational studies was followed for reporting this study. The ARIMA (1,1,1) and SARIMA (1,1,2) models were identified as the best-performing models. The forecasts indicate a steady dengue prevalence for 2024 according to ARIMA, while SARIMA predicts significant fluctuations. These models offer valuable insights for healthcare planning and resource allocation, although external factors and complex interactions must be considered.