Impacts of climate change on agricultural production and adaptation strategies in Northeast China

As the “stabilizer” of national food security, Northeast China is highly sensitive to climate change. Over the past 60 years, the regional temperature has risen significantly at a rate of 0.034℃/a, which is much higher than the global average of 0.0074℃/a. The improvement of thermal resources has driven a significant northward expansion of high-yield and heat-demanding crops, such as maize and rice. Nevertheless, increased warming has enhanced evapotranspiration demand, which, combined with the expansion of planting scales, has led to a 19.8% increase in agricultural irrigation water consumption over the past 20 years, resulting in a prominent contradiction between supply and demand. The spectrum of agricultural disasters has evolved from traditional low-temperature damage to complex characteristics dominated by drought, accompanied by frequent floods, and increased risks of pests and diseases. To address the above issues, a series of effective measures need to be adopted. Specifically, water conservancy networking should be strengthened to optimize the temporal and spatial matching of water and land resources. The planting structure should be scientifically adjusted based on water resource carrying capacity. Precision water-saving technologies should be promoted and stress-tolerant varieties with high water use efficiency should be developed. A comprehensive monitoring, early warning, prevention and control network for extreme climates across the region should be established. Moreover, scientific straw returning to the field should be implemented to prevent and control the accumulation of pest and disease sources, thereby systematically improving the risk resistance capacity of the black soil granary.