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Replication Data for: The Democrat Disaster: Hurricane Exposure, Risk Aversion and Insurance Demand

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NIAID Data Ecosystem2026-05-02 收录
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How does exposure to natural disasters influence voter decision-making? Whilst extreme weather events are exogenous shocks, observed effects often rely on compound treatment effects of exposure not only to threat but also to direct losses. To circumvent this, I use difference-in-differences estimates of hurricane nearly-hit areas in the US to study the effect of proximity to hazard on vote choice. I find that Democrats' vote share decreases following a near-miss in both House and Senate races between 2002-2014. Conventional explanations related to religiosity, authority, or competence fail to explain this effect. Instead, I propose Republican gains are driven by voters' spending on private insurance and increased willingness to take risks when spared from disaster. I therefore advance an alternative explanation for voting in response to natural disasters by relying on novel data on hurricane trajectories, precinct electoral returns, risk-aversion, and private insurance inquiries.

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2024-12-05
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