-values for histograms from trade vs. surrogate data.

The column ‘’ lists the results as described in the main text. In addition, robustness tests where conducted with results listed in separate columns. ‘ = 200 k USD’ uses the same set of countries and a threshold of 200.000 USD below which trade flows are ignored. In ‘all products with positive exports’ all products are included which have positive world exports in each year of the analysis. The column ‘1989–2000’ decreases the number of years included in analysis. Results excluding the FSU and CEE are listed in ‘Excl. FSU’. The maximal lag is then increased to . The last column reports results using the UN ComTrade dataset, as described in Text S1.