Further evidence on the invalidity of self-reported consistency

Every day life frequently requires informal reasoning about probabilistic events even though formal education in probabilistic reasoning is considered a difficult advanced topic. The large number of probabilistic expressions in common usage (such as rarely, probably, seldom, possibly) are evidence of the importance of informal probabilistic reasoning. To communicate and reason effectively about probabilistic events, these expressions should have mutually understood, reasonably precise interpretations. Informal interviews suggest, however, that these expressions are generally vague and imprecise. unknown unknown