Population models used in: Method to assess potential magnitude of terrestrial European avian population reductions from ingestion of lead ammunition

Current estimates of terrestrial bird losses across Europe from ingestion of lead ammunition are based on uncertain or generic assumptions. A method is needed to develop defensible European-specific estimates compatible with available data that does not require long-term field studies. We propose a 2-step method using carcass data and population models. The method estimates percentage of deaths diagnosed as directly caused by lead poisoning as a lower bound and, as an upper bound, the percentage of possible deaths from sublethal lead poisoning that weakens birds, making them susceptible to death by other causes. We use these estimates to modify known population-level annual mortality. Our method also allows for potential reductions in reproduction from lead shot ingestion because reductions in survival and reproduction are entered into population models of species with life histories representative of the most groups of susceptible species. The models estimate the sustainability and pot...