Coronavirus impact on GDP growth rate in the Netherlands 2000-2021

According to quarterly pulse monitors, the Dutch economy will face a recession in 2020 due to the coronavirus and geopolitical events. This according to one of five sources in the Netherlands that presented an economic outlook for 2020. From 2018 to 2019, GDP in the Netherlands showed a 1.8 percent growth. On March 9, 2020, Rabobank economists calculated that a 0.7 percent of GDP growth was expected for 2020. The source originally noted, however, that this is not only due to the coronavirus outbreak. The Netherlands also was going to feel the future effects of the United Kingdom leaving the EU, as the UK was one of the Netherlands’ biggest trading partners. During March 2020, the Dutch economy was also negatively impacted by events such as the U.S. -China trade war or the sudden drop in oil prices. By June 2020, the 0.7 percent GDP growth forecast was revised to minus 5.7 percent.Is COVID-19 going to have a bigger impact in the Netherlands than in other European countries?According to a forecast from the European Commission conducted in July 2020, the Dutch economy suffered a GDP hit of 1.5 percent quarter-to-quarter in Q1 2020. In addition, a projected quarterly GDP decline of 11.5 percent was estimated in Q2 2020. Real GDP for the year 2020 was predicted to decline by 6.75 percent, a figure that was lower than real GDP losses predicted for other European countries. While the Netherlands successfully adopted emergency measures to protect employment, it was expected that the Dutch economy would be affected by lower private consumption and exports. Economic consequences in the Netherlands were predicted to be not as negative as in other countries. Belgium, for instance, was expected to face a GDP loss of 8.75 percent.Back to reality: Dutch economic consequences so far The coronavirus and its resulting quarantine measures caused, the largest decrease in domestic household consumption in the Netherlands in over 20 years. Restaurants were believed to be especially hit by the pandemic, whereas expenditure on food, beverages, and tobacco went up. Furthermore, between May and June 2020, the monthly unemployment rate of the Netherlands increased greatly. In January 2020, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for ages 15 until 75 years stood at three percent, whereas by July it had increased to 4.4 percent.

根据季度脉搏监测数据，荷兰经济预计将于2020年因新冠疫情及地缘政治事件而陷入衰退。此预测源于荷兰五个提供2020年经济展望的来源之一。从2018年至2019年，荷兰国内生产总值（GDP）呈现出1.8%的增长。然而，在2020年3月9日，荷兰合作银行（Rabobank）的经济学家预计，2020年的GDP增长率为0.7%。然而，原始报告指出，这一增长并非仅由新冠疫情爆发所致。荷兰还将承受英国退出欧盟的未来影响，因为英国是荷兰最大的贸易伙伴之一。2020年3月期间，荷兰经济还受到美国-中国贸易战或石油价格突然下跌等事件的负面影响。到2020年6月，0.7%的GDP增长预测已被修正为-5.7%。那么，COVID-19在荷兰的影响是否将大于其他欧洲国家？根据2020年7月欧洲委员会的预测，荷兰经济在2020年第一季度经历了1.5%的季度GDP下降。此外，预计第二季度季度GDP将下降11.5%。预计2020年全年实际GDP将下降6.75%，这一数字低于其他欧洲国家预测的实际GDP损失。尽管荷兰成功采取了紧急措施以保护就业，但预计荷兰经济将受到私人消费和出口下降的影响。荷兰的经济后果预计不会像其他国家那样严重。例如，预计比利时将面临8.75%的GDP损失。回归现实：荷兰经济后果至今，新冠疫情及其引发的隔离措施导致了荷兰20多年来国内家庭消费的最大降幅。餐厅被认为特别受到疫情的冲击，而食品、饮料和烟草的消费支出则有所上升。此外，在2020年5月至6月期间，荷兰的月失业率大幅上升。2020年1月，15至75岁的季节性调整失业率为3%，而到7月，这一比率已上升至4.4%。