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How Could Everyone Have Been So Wrong? Forecasting the Great Depression with the Railroads

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NBER2002-06-01 更新2025-01-04 收录
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https://www.nber.org/papers/w9011
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Contemporary observers viewed the recession that began in the summer of 1929 as nothing extraordinary. Recent analyses have shown that the subsequent large deflation was econometrically forecastable, implying that a driving force in the depression was the high expected real interest rates faced by
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美国国家经济研究局
创建时间:
2002-06-01
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