Inconsistent Retirement Timing

AbstractWe study the effect of inconsistent time preferences on actual and planned retirement timing decisions in two independent datasets. Theory predicts that hyperbolic time preferences can lead to dynamically inconsistent retirement timing. In an online experiment with more than 2,000 participants, we find that time-inconsistent participants retire on average 1.75 years earlier than time-consistent participants do. The planned retirement age of non-retired participants decreases with age. This negative age effect is about twice as strong among time-inconsistent participants. The temptation of early retirement seems to rise in the final years of approaching retirement. Consequently, time-inconsistent participants have a higher probability of regretting their retirement decision. We find similar results for a representative household survey (German SAVE panel). Using smoking behavior and overdraft usage as time preference proxies, we confirm that time-inconsistent participants retire earlier and that non-retirees reduce their planned retirement age within the panel.MethodsWe conduct an online experiment in cooperation with a large and well-circulated German newspaper, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ). Participants are recruited via a link on the newspaper's website and two announcements in the print edition. In total, 3,077 participants complete the experiment, which takes them on average 11 minutes. Participants answer questions about retirement planning, time preferences, risk preferences, financial literacy, and demographics. The initial sample for this study consists of 256 retired participants and 2,173 non-retired participants.Usage NotesOur dataset: STATA Do File is attached Additional Datasets: In addition, a German Household Panle is used in this paper. The data cannot be uploaded by us but is available via the Max Planck Institute (https://www.mpisoc.mpg.de/en/social-policy-mea/research/save-2001-2013/). We upload the Do-Files used in the analysis and the results in an excel format (xlsx).<br>摘要 本研究基于两份独立数据集，探讨时间偏好不一致性对实际退休与计划退休时点决策的影响。理论表明，双曲线时间偏好（hyperbolic time preferences）会引发退休时点的动态不一致性。在一项覆盖超2000名参与者的线上实验中，我们发现时间偏好不一致的参与者平均比时间偏好一致的参与者提前1.75年退休。未退休参与者的计划退休年龄随年龄增长呈下降趋势，且该年龄负向影响在时间偏好不一致的群体中强度约为前者的两倍。临近退休的最后数年，提前退休的诱惑愈发强烈，因此时间偏好不一致的参与者更易对自身退休决策感到后悔。针对具有代表性的德国家庭追踪调查面板（German SAVE panel），本研究得到了一致的结论。本研究以吸烟行为与透支消费行为作为时间偏好的代理变量，进一步验证了时间偏好不一致的参与者退休更早，且追踪调查中的未退休群体降低了其计划退休年龄。 研究方法 本研究与德国发行量广泛的权威报纸《法兰克福汇报》（Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, FAZ）合作开展线上实验。参与者通过报纸官网链接与纸版两则公告招募，最终共有3077名参与者完成实验，平均耗时11分钟。参与者需回答关于退休规划、时间偏好、风险偏好、金融素养及人口统计特征的问题。本研究初始样本包含256名已退休参与者与2173名未退休参与者。 使用说明 本研究数据集：附带STATA Do文件。 额外数据集：本文同时使用德国家庭追踪面板数据，该数据无法由我们直接上传，可通过马克斯·普朗克研究所获取（https://www.mpisoc.mpg.de/en/social-policy-mea/research/save-2001-2013/）。本研究上传了分析所用的Do文件与Excel格式（.xlsx）的结果文件。