MPI-ESM-HR seasonal hindcast

Upwelling processes bring nutrient-rich waters from the deep ocean to the surface. Areas of upwelling are often associated with high productivity, offering great economic value in terms of fisheries. Thus, predictive skill for regional oceanographic conditions is highly desirable. Recently, seasonal predictability of coastal upwelling systems has received attention with potential skill excepted at  the southern edge of the Canary Upwelling System: the Senegalo-Mauritanian Upwelling System (SMUS), in spite of its primary importance to the functioning of the ecosystem and its crucial relevance for local populations. On this aspect, we provide here an overview of the  seasonal  Sea Surface Temperature (SST) prediction in the SMUS with the latest version of MPI-ESM1.2 hindcasts. In the SMUS region, seasonal variations of SST are predictable 1 to 4 months in advance during boreal winter, consistent with variable wind forcing being the dominant driver of SST predictability particularly  during the strong phases of the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM)  and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. However the  AMM plays a major role in enhancing the predictability of SST in the SMUS, while the remote influence  from Pacific ENSO shows only a limited contribution to SST predictability. Predicting SST of coastal upwelling systems may have direct implications on fisheries management strategies.