Heat Risk and Resilience Assessment in the UK, 2022

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, yet many countries remain inadequately prepared to manage their impacts. Existing heat risk plans and responses often fail to account for the complex interdependencies among the various causes and impact pathways of heat waves. Effective planning requires a system-level understanding of these interdependencies to identify strategic entry points for action. This research employs a participatory system mapping approach to explore the interconnections among causes, impacts, and response actions during the UK heatwave events of summer 2022. Cognitive maps were developed shortly after the events, incorporating input from 38 stakeholders across sectors involved in the heatwave response. These maps informed a forensic disaster analysis designed to provide a holistic understanding of the heatwave’s causes, impacts, and adaptation measures. By analysing the interdependencies among these factors, we identified cascading effects and amplifiers that significantly intensified heat risk in the UK. Notably, we find that the primary heatwave impacts were often indirect, emerging or worsening due to cascading effects such as wildfires, drought, transportation disruptions, and the overburdening of first responders. In many cases, adaptation measures were reactive, addressing isolated, short-term impacts, while proactive, system-level approaches tackling interconnected impacts and root causes—such as vulnerable buildings, at-risk populations, and behavioural barriers—were largely absent. Additionally, we found notable variations in heat risk perceptions among groups. While individual sectors displayed a limited understanding of the broader heat risk system, a system-level perspective emerged through the aggregation of cognitive maps. The implications for adaptation research and policy are discussed.<p>The Place-Based Climate Action Network (P-CAN) seeks to strengthen the links between national and international climate policy and local delivery through place-based climate action. The Network is innovative in its focus on local decision making. Clear policy signals by the government are essential, but the key to continued climate action increasingly lies at the local level, with the participation of local actors, businesses and citizens. Important decisions about low-carbon business opportunities, renewable energy investment, urban transport, energy management, buildings efficiency and the management of climate risks are decentralised and taken across the UK. P-CAN is about engagement, impact, and the co-creation and sharing of knowledge. The Network has the following components: 1. Place-based climate change commissions: We will develop three city-level climate commissions, in Belfast, Edinburgh and Leeds. The concept is currently being piloted in Leeds as an innovative structure for sustained two-way, multi-level engagement between national and local policy and practice. We will work on the replication of these commissions in other local context to further broaden our reach. 2. Thematic platforms: There will be two theme-based platforms, on business engagement and green finance. These virtual networks will focus on two stakeholder groups that are particularly important for place-based climate action. They will be co-created with representatives from the business and sustainable finance community. 3. The P-CAN Flexible Fund: We will open the Network to the wider community of climate change researchers and research users by commissioning 20-30 small grants. The grants will be awarded competitively, with a focus on engagement activities, user-oriented analysis, innovative approaches and support for early-career researchers. 4. Communication and user-oriented research synthesis: An active outreach strategy will connect the place-based activities and inform wider climate action by co-producing, synthesising and communicating decision-relevant analysis. This programme of user-oriented outreach will leverage the work of P-CAN's host institutions and other ESRC investments. P-CAN is led by an experienced team of senior academics from a diversity of backgrounds. They all have strong track records of engaging with decision processes at the local, national and/or international level. Most of them have combined academic achievements with careers in business, finance, or international development. The Network PI is a former member of the Committee on Climate Change. The core team is supported by a full-time Network Manager, a Communications Officer and a group of Network Analysts who will provide analytical, administrative and logistics support for the five platforms (three local commissions and two thematic platforms). P-CAN will, to the maximum extent possible, leverage the existing administrative, research and engagement capabilities of its host institutions, including the ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, the Edinburgh Centre for Carbon Innovation, and the Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Governance in Belfast. P-CAN will be successful if it can inform the climate change decisions of stakeholders across the five platforms. We will focus on activities that support key UK policy objectives and their local implementation, such as the city strategies of Belfast, Edinburgh and Leeds, the UK Industrial Strategy, the Clean Growth Strategy, the statutory carbon budgets, the 25-year Environment Plan, the next Climate Change Risk Assessment, the recommendations of the UK Green Finance Task Force and the Task Force for Climate-related Financial Disclosure (TCFD) as well as the climate strategies of Scotland and Northern Ireland. P-CAN will respond flexibly to evolving demands. This will ensure that the platforms we create become self-sustaining and can be replicated elsewhere.</p>热浪（heatwave）发生频率愈发升高、强度持续增强，但诸多国家仍未做好充足准备以应对其带来的影响。现有热浪风险防控方案与应对措施，往往未能充分考量热浪各类成因与影响路径间复杂的相互依存关系。 有效的防控规划需要从系统层面理解这些依存关系，以识别可采取行动的战略切入点。本研究采用参与式系统制图法，针对2022年夏季英国热浪事件中，热浪成因、影响与应对行动之间的相互关联展开探索。研究人员在事件结束后不久便绘制了认知地图（cognitive maps），整合了参与热浪应对的跨领域38名利益相关方（stakeholder）的意见。这些认知地图为灾害溯源分析提供了支撑，旨在全面解析热浪的成因、影响与适应措施。 通过分析这些要素间的相互依存关系，本研究识别出显著加剧英国热浪风险的级联效应与放大因子。值得注意的是，热浪的主要影响往往具有间接性，常因野火、干旱、交通中断以及应急响应人员过载等级联效应而显现或恶化。在多数情况下，适应措施多为被动应对，仅针对孤立的短期影响，而针对相互关联的影响与根本成因（如脆弱建筑、高危人群与行为障碍）的主动系统层面应对方案则几乎缺位。此外，不同群体对热浪风险的认知存在显著差异。尽管单个领域对更广泛的热浪风险系统的认知有限，但通过整合多份认知地图，可形成系统层面的视角。本文最后讨论了该研究对适应相关研究与政策的启示。 地方气候行动网络（Place-Based Climate Action Network, P-CAN）旨在通过地方层面的气候行动，加强国家与国际气候政策与地方落地之间的联系。该网络的创新之处在于其聚焦地方决策。政府发出明确的政策信号至关重要，但持续推进气候行动的关键日益落在地方层面，有赖于地方行动者、企业与公民的参与。有关低碳商业机遇、可再生能源投资、城市交通、能源管理、建筑节能以及气候风险管理的重要决策正不断分权化，在英国各地推进落地。 P-CAN的核心在于参与协作、产生影响，以及知识的共创与共享。该网络包含以下组成部分： 1. 地方气候变化委员会：本项目将在贝尔法斯特、爱丁堡与利兹设立三个市级气候委员会。该理念目前已在利兹开展试点，作为构建国家与地方政策及实践之间持续双向、多层级互动的创新架构。研究团队将推动这些委员会在其他地方场景中复制推广，以进一步扩大覆盖范围。 2. 主题平台：将设立两个主题平台，分别聚焦商业参与与绿色金融。这些虚拟网络将针对地方气候行动中尤为重要的两类利益相关群体构建，将与商业与可持续金融领域的代表共同共创。 3. P-CAN灵活基金：本项目将委托发放20至30笔小额资助，将网络拓展至更广泛的气候变化研究者与研究用户群体。资助将通过竞争性评审方式授予，重点支持参与式活动、面向用户的分析、创新方法以及对早期职业研究者的扶持。 4. 传播与面向用户的研究综合：将通过积极的外联策略，推动地方层面的气候行动，并通过共同生成、综合整理与传播决策相关的分析成果，为更广泛的气候行动提供信息支撑。该面向用户的外联项目将依托P-CAN主办机构以及其他经济和社会研究理事会（Economic and Social Research Council, ESRC）资助项目的工作成果。 P-CAN由一支背景多元的资深学术专家团队领导，他们均拥有在地方、国家乃至国际层面参与决策流程的丰富经验。其中多数人兼具学术成就与商业、金融或国际发展领域的从业经历。该网络的首席研究员曾任职于气候变化委员会（Committee on Climate Change）。 核心团队配备全职网络经理、传播专员以及一批网络分析师，将为五个平台（三个地方委员会与两个主题平台）提供分析、行政与后勤支持。P-CAN将尽可能依托主办机构现有的行政、研究与参与能力，包括经济和社会研究理事会气候变化经济学与政策中心、爱丁堡碳创新中心以及贝尔法斯特可持续性与环境治理中心。 P-CAN若能为五个平台上的利益相关方的气候变化决策提供支撑，便算取得成功。本项目将聚焦支持英国关键政策目标及其地方落地的活动，例如贝尔法斯特、爱丁堡与利兹的城市战略、英国工业战略、清洁增长战略、法定碳预算、25年环境计划、下一次气候变化风险评估、英国绿色金融工作组以及气候相关财务信息披露工作组（Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures, TCFD）的相关建议，以及苏格兰与北爱尔兰的气候战略。P-CAN将灵活响应不断演变的需求，确保所搭建的平台能够实现自我可持续运营，并可在其他地区复制推广。