Data from: Brood size affects future reproduction in a long-lived bird with precocial young

Estimation of trade-offs between current reproduction and future survival
and fecundity of long-lived vertebrates is essential to understanding
factors that shape optimal reproductive investment. Black brant geese
(Branta bernicla nigricans) are able fledge more goslings, on average,
when their broods are experimentally enlarged to be greater than the most
common clutch size of four eggs. Thus, we hypothesized that the lesser
frequency of brant clutches exceeding four eggs results, at least
partially, from a future reduction in survival, breeding probability, or
clutch size for females tending larger broods. We used an eight-year
mark-recapture dataset (Barker robust design) with five years of clutch
and brood manipulations to estimate long-term consequences of reproductive
decisions in brant. We did not find evidence of a trade-off between
reproductive effort and true survival or future clutch size. Rather,
future breeding probability was maximized (0.92 ± 0.03 [se]) for
manipulated females tending broods of four goslings (i.e., the most common
natural brood size) and lower for females tending smaller (one gosling;
0.63 ± 0.09 [se]) or larger broods (seven goslings; 0.52 ± 0.15 [se]). Our
results suggest that demographic trade-offs for female brant tending large
broods may reduce the fitness value of clutches larger than four and,
therefore, contribute to the paucity of larger clutches. The lack of a
trade-off between reproductive effort and survival provides evidence that
this trait, to which fitness is most sensitive in long-lived animals, is
buffered against temporal variation.