Risk-averse transitions: transfer choice points and institutional strategies in VET-to-HE pathways

This article examines pathways from vocational education and training (VET) to higher education (HE) in Russia, challenging the prevailing view of VET-HE transfer as a homogeneous or purely compensatory route. Drawing on rational action theory and a nationally representative longitudinal dataset, the study conceptualises VET-HE transitions as a series of ‘Transfer Choice Points’ – critical junctures where students, shaped by their social backgrounds and institutional contexts, weigh the costs, benefits, and risks of pursuing higher education. The analysis identifies three distinct transfer trajectories: (1) the Bypass pathway, marked by early, strategic decisions among academically strong students; (2) the Safety Net pathway, serving as a risk-mitigating option for those facing setbacks in traditional academic routes; and (3) Experience-driven Mobility, characterised by late-emerging aspirations and higher vulnerability. Findings reveal that institutional configurations – particularly the presence of university-affiliated VET schools and ‘transfer-friendly’ universities – play a pivotal but differentiated role in shaping these trajectories. The results underscore the importance of institutional design in mediating educational inequalities and highlight the need for targeted support for students with late-developing aspirations. By offering a nuanced framework for understanding VET-HE transitions, this study contributes to European debates on widening participation, risk aversion, and the stratification of higher education pathways.