Land Use Change and Ecological Sensitivity in the Qingdao West Coast New Area: A 30-Year Analysis and Future Scenario Simulation

This study aims to reveal the long-term ecological evolution in the Qingdao West Coast New Area (QWCNA) and predict future trends to support its sustainable development. Firstly, it employed GIS-based land use dynamic indices and transfer matrix analyses to assess land use changes from 1990–2020. Secondly, this study assessed ecological sensitivity (1990–2020) using an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) weighted 7-factor system covering the natural environment, land cover, and accessibility. Thirdly, the Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model predicted 2030 land use under Natural Development (ND), Urban Development (UD), and Ecological Protection (EP) scenarios, which were subsequently used to evaluate future ecological sensitivity patterns.