Replication package: Exchange rate pass-through and monetary credibility in Türkiye, 1994 to 2023

Monetary credibility shapes how exchange-rate movements feed into consumer prices. We estimate a recursive VAR in CPI, broad money M3 and the real effective exchange rate (REER) on monthly data 1994:01-2023:08, partitioning Türkiye into three institutionally dated regimes and using the United States as a credibility-anchored benchmark. Three quantitative facts identify the mechanism. Monetary innovations Granger-cause the exchange rate in Türkiye (F=3.66, p=0.013) but not in the United States (F=0.16, p=0.93). The REER share of Turkish CPI variance at thirty-six months rises from 2.68 percent under inflation targeting (2003-2017) to 30.91 percent in the post-targeting era (2018-2023); the combined REER and M3 share moves from 5.85 to 61.50 percent. Finally, the United States benchmark (REER 6.94 percent, own-shock 89.13 percent) tracks the Turkish inflation-targeting profile, not the post-targeting one. The result holds under nominal and real M3 alike and matches Taylor's (2000) symmetric credibility prediction.