Net-zero emissions aviation
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Dataset for Net-zero emissions aviation paper. Abstract: International climate goals imply reaching net-zero global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by roughly mid-century (and net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by the end of the century). Among the most difficult emissions to avoid will be those from aviation given the industry’s need for energy-dense liquid fuels that lack commercially competitive substitutes, and the difficult-to-abate non-CO2 radiative forcing. Here, we systematically assess pathways to net-zero emissions aviation, exploring the potential contribution of different approaches. We find that ambitious reductions in demand for air transport and improvements in the energy efficiency of aircraft might avoid up to 61% (2.8 GtCO2 equivalent) and 27% (1.2 GtCO2-eq), respectively, of projected business-as-usual aviation emissions in 2050. However, further reductions will depend on replacing fossil jet fuel with large quantities of net-zero emissions biofuels or synthetic fuels (i.e. 2.5-19.8 EJ of sustainable aviation fuels)—which may be substantially more expensive. Moreover, up to 3.4 GtCO2-eq may need to be removed from the atmosphere to compensate for non-CO2 forcing for the sector to achieve net-zero GHG. Our results may inform investments and priorities for innovation by highlighting plausible pathways to net-zero emissions aviation, including the relative potential and trade-offs of changes in behavior, technology, and energy sources.
面向净零排放航空研究论文的数据集。摘要：国际气候目标要求，全球二氧化碳（CO₂）排放在本世纪中叶左右实现净零，温室气体排放在本世纪末实现净零。鉴于航空业亟需能量密度高的液态燃料且暂无具备商业竞争力的替代方案，同时该行业的非二氧化碳辐射强迫（non-CO2 radiative forcing）难以减排，航空排放是最难避免的排放源之一。本研究系统评估了航空业实现净零排放的路径，并探讨了不同减排手段的潜在贡献。研究发现，若大力削减航空运输需求并提升航空器能源利用效率，到2050年可分别避免基准情景下航空排放量的61%（折合28亿吨二氧化碳当量）与27%（折合12亿吨二氧化碳当量）。但后续减排需依赖以大量净零排放生物燃料或合成燃料替代化石航空燃料，即采用2.5~19.8艾焦的可持续航空燃料（sustainable aviation fuels）——此类燃料的成本可能大幅高于传统燃料。此外，若要实现航空业温室气体净零排放，最多需从大气中移除34亿吨二氧化碳当量的温室气体，以抵消该行业的非二氧化碳辐射强迫。本研究通过梳理航空业实现净零排放的可行路径，包括行为变革、技术升级与能源转型的相对潜力与权衡取舍，可为相关创新投资与优先级设定提供参考。
