A high-resolution speleothem record of Marine Isotope Stage 11 as a natural analog to Holocene Asian summer monsoon variations

A full-spectrum characterization of past interglacial climate is a necessary prerequisite for the detection and attribution of climate changes during the current interglacial. Here we present a speleothem record of Asian summer monsoon (ASM) during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 interglacial (MIS 11c), from Yongxing cave, China. The record’s unprecedented chronologic constraints and decadal-scale temporal resolution allow a precise and direct comparison of ASM between the MIS 11c and the Holocene. Our data suggest that orbital–centennial patterns of ASM were remarkably similar during both interglacial, including their pacing and structure. Notably, a multi-millennial stronger monsoon late in MIS 11c, the ‘Late-MIS 11c shift’, is similar to the Late Holocene strengthening of the ASM, the ‘2-kyr shift’. Thus the multi-centennial ASM weakening at the end of the ‘Late-MIS 11c shift’ could imply that the current century-long ASM waning trend may persist into the future, if only natural forcings are considered.