2015-2065年青藏工程走廊活动层厚度预测图

青藏工程走廊北起格尔木，南至拉萨，其穿越青藏高原核心区域、是连通内地与西藏的重要通道。活动层厚度不仅是研究多年冻土区地面热状态的重要指标，而且是冻土工程建设中需考虑的关键因子。GIPL1.0的核心是Kudryavtesv方法，该模型考虑了雪盖、植被和不同土层的热物理性质，但尹国安等发现相比Kudryavtesv方法，引入TTOP模型后精度更高，因此结合冻结/融化指数对模型做了改进，通过实地监测数据验证发现：活动层厚度模拟误差小于50cm。因此利用改进后的GIPL1.0 模型模拟了青藏工程走廊的活动层厚度，并预测了SSP2-4.5气候变化情景下未来活动层的厚度。

The Qinghai-Tibet Engineering Corridor starts from Golmud in the north and ends at Lhasa in the south, traversing the core area of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and serving as an important passage connecting inland China and the Tibet Autonomous Region. Active layer thickness is not only a critical indicator for studying the ground thermal regime in permafrost regions, but also a key factor that must be considered in permafrost engineering construction. The core of GIPL1.0 is the Kudryavtesv method, which considers snow cover, vegetation, and the thermophysical properties of different soil layers. However, Yin Guo'an et al. found that introducing the TTOP model achieves higher accuracy compared to the Kudryavtesv method. Therefore, the model was improved by combining the freezing/thawing index. Verified via field monitoring data, the simulation error of active layer thickness was found to be less than 50 cm. Accordingly, the improved GIPL1.0 model was used to simulate the active layer thickness of the Qinghai-Tibet Engineering Corridor, and predict the future active layer thickness under the SSP2-4.5 climate change scenario.