Climate risk, financial structure, and firm resilience: evidence from unlisted firms in Morocco

This datasets was used to examines how climate exposure, financial structure, and firm capability jointly shape financial vulnerability and performance among Moroccan unlisted firms. Using World Bank Enterprise Survey data for 2013, 2019, and 2023, the analysis combines spatial climate-risk mapping with firm-level financial modelling. Productive asset values are reconstructed using a Cobb-Douglas framework and linked to multiple climate hazards using the CLIMADA risk modelling system. Tail risks are assessed using Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall, while climate-adjusted default risk is estimated through structural and accounting-based bankruptcy models. The results show that climate physical risk is spatially heterogeneous across Moroccan regions and significantly increases tail risk and projected default probabilities under high-warming scenarios. Leverage tends to reduce firm value while supporting short-term profitability, but its effects depend on firms’ adaptive capacity. Policy simulations indicate that financing adjustments alone are insufficient to offset climate-related losses, whereas improvements in financial access and internal firm capability substantially enhance resilience. The study contributes to climate finance and corporate finance literature by providing a firm-level framework for assessing climate-related financial vulnerability among unlisted firms and by supporting a capability-contingent view of capital structure under climate risk. Policy implications highlight the importance of combining financial reforms with capability development to strengthen firm resilience to climate shocks.