The impact of innovation policies in scientometric indicators through the combination of Punctuated Equilibrium Theory and Synthetic Control Method

The study considers the policies and budgetary review of the Brazilian innovation policies to suggest two significant punctuations from 1995-2023. Supported by Punctuated Equilibrium Theory (PET), the analysis reveals an expansion phase from 2007 to 2014, followed by a retraction period from 2015 to 2023. To assess the impact of these policy changes, the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) is applied to measure the quantity and quality of documents published by Brazilian authors in the Web of Science database. Overall, the results confirm the expected effects on scientometric indicators: positive impacts during the expansion phase and negative impacts during the retraction phase. The paper with the detailed description of the methods and results is in submission phase.