Models of H5 that include H5 data in other hosts compared to the “best” model selected.

Column statistics are by the same methods as described in Table 1.1Cragg & Uhler’s method: (1-(L0/Lm)2/N )/1-L02/N; L = likelihood; 0 = intercept-only model; m = full model; N = number of data points.2Mean Squared Prediction Error: sum(y-m)2/N; smaller values indicate better fits; y = observed data; m = mean of predicted data; N = number of points predicted.3Normalized Mean Squared Prediction Error: sum((y-m)/s)2/N; smaller values indicate better fits; y = observed data; m = mean of predicted data; s = standard deviation of predicted data; N = number of points predicted.4Best model covariates: Maximum windspeed, H9 prevalence in ducks one month in the past.Covariates in other models: DKH5 = H5 prevalence in ducks, QAH5 = H5 prevalence in quail, DKH5+QAH5 = sum of DKH5 and QAH5.