"the raw 200-market dataset collected from Polymarket API"

"Dataset Description: This dataset contains 200 resolved binary (YES\/NO) prediction markets collected from Polymarket via the Gamma API and CLOB prices-history endpoint.markets_raw.json \u2014 Raw market data including market ID, question text, category, pre-close market-implied YES probability (sampled 7 days before resolution), trading volume in USDC, and ground-truth binary resolution outcome (1=YES, 0=NO). Markets span political elections, macroeconomic events, sports, cryptocurrency, and geopolitical categories with a minimum volume of $1,000 USDC.results.json \u2014 Processed results including PolySwarm swarm probability estimates at four agent counts (n=5, 10, 25, 50), confidence-weighted aggregation outputs, Bayesian blend predictions at four weight values (\u03b1=0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8), and a flag indicating whether real LLM calls or simulation were used for each market. 13 uncertain  markets (pre-close price 0.10\u20130.90) use real LLM predictions; 187 near-certain markets use a validated simulation model."