National Ethnic Population Projections 2013-base Update

Ethnic groups and the reference period This release contains updated 2013-base population projections for all five broad level 1 ethnic populations of New Zealand: 'European or Other (including New Zealander)', Māori, Asian, Pacific, and MELAA (Middle Eastern, Latin American and African). In addition, three broad level 2 ethnic populations have been projected: Chinese, Indian, and Samoan. This is the first time the MELAA, Chinese, Indian, and Samoan ethnic groups have been projected. These projections supersede the 2013-base projections released in May 2015. The new projections have the estimated resident population of each ethnic group at 30 June 2013 as a base, and cover the period 2014–38 at one-year intervals. Consistency with other projections These ethnic population projections complement the projections of the total New Zealand population (National Population Projections: 2016(base)–2068) released on 19 October 2016. However, only the median projection (50th percentile) of the ethnic population projections and the median projection of the national population projections are designed to be directly comparable. Other percentiles cannot be directly compared because the projection assumptions may be incompatible. Changes since the previous 2013-base projections Addition of four new ethnic groups For the first time, projections of the MELAA, Chinese, Indian, and Samoan ethnic groups are produced to provide further information about the increasingly diverse ethnic make-up of New Zealand’s population. Review of assumptions Deriving the projections involves a review of all projection assumptions for each ethnic group. These national ethnic population projections are updated to incorporate the latest demographic information, notably the 2016-base national population projections (released 19 October 2016). Birth and death registrations and international travel and migration are also important data sources. The main changes from the previous 2013-base projections (released May 2015) are: Net migration for all ethnic groups is assumed to be higher in the short term (2014–21). The median annual net migration is assumed to be 1,000 higher for ‘European or Other’, and 2,000 higher for Asian in the long term (2022–38). This is consistent with the higher levels assumed in recent national population projections. The total fertility rates (TFRs) for all four ethnic groups included in the previous 2013-base projections have decreased. The Māori and Pacific long-term TFRs are both 0.10 lower, and the ‘European or Other’ and Asian TFRs are both 0.05 lower. This is more consistent with the lower assumed rates in recent national population projections. Which projection to use The projections are summarised by percentiles, which indicate the probability distribution for any projected characteristic. You can make your own judgement as to which projections are most suitable for your purposes. At the time of release, the 50th percentile (or median) indicates an estimated 50 percent chance that the actual result will be lower, and a 50 percent chance that the actual result will be higher, than this percentile. The median is equivalent to the 'medium' (or mid-range) projection provided in previous deterministic projections. The 25th percentile indicates an estimated 25 percent chance that the actual result will be lower, and a 75 percent chance that the actual result will be higher, than this percentile. It is important to note, however, that the estimates of uncertainty are themselves uncertain. Availability of other ethnic projections Projections are not available for all individual ethnicities (eg Tongan, Filipino). For smaller ethnic populations, it is difficult to derive robust measures of the components of ethnic population change – fertility, paternity, mortality, migration, inter-ethnic mobility – to enable projections to be readily produced. Method A special 'cohort component' method has been used to derive the population projections. Using this method, the base population is projected forward by calculating the effect of deaths, migration, and inter-ethnic mobility within each age-sex group (or cohort) according to the specified mortality, migration, and inter-ethnic mobility assumptions. New birth cohorts are added to the population by applying the specified fertility assumptions to the female population of childbearing age, and the specified paternity assumptions to the male population. The method differs from the conventional cohort component method in two respects: for each ethnic group, births are projected separately for women, and for men where the mother is not of that ethnic group the projections allow for population change due to inter-ethnic mobility (ie people changing their ethnic identification over time). The stochastic approach involves creating 2,000 simulations for the base population, births, deaths, net migration, and inter-ethnic mobility, and then combining these using the cohort component method. en-NZ