Nuclear Study - Model Results

The study is a technical analysis of the potential risks and
uncertainties of South Africa’s proposed commitment to 9.6 GW of nuclear
power. The objective of the study is to review this commitment in
comparison to a more flexible planning approach that aims to minimise
costs. It includes three main tiers of analysis: the first builds two
alternative futures, so that we can understand the implications of
different investment strategies in uncertain future worlds; the second
models the socioeconomic impacts of the commitment to nuclear power
versus a flexible planning approach in each of these futures (i.e.
committed nuclear versus least-cost investment plans in different
futures); the third estimates the risks of an increase in the
electricity price to the South African economy and consumers.

本项研究旨在对南非拟承诺的9.6吉瓦核能发电的潜在风险与不确定性进行技术剖析。研究目标在于，将此承诺与旨在最小化成本的可灵活调整的规划方法进行比较。研究包含三个主要分析层次：首层构建两种替代的未来情景，以便我们能够理解在充满不确定性的未来世界中，不同投资策略的潜在影响；次层针对每个未来情景，模拟核能承诺与灵活规划方法的社会经济影响（即，承诺核能发电与不同未来情景下的最低成本投资计划）；末层评估电价上涨对南非经济及消费者所面临的风险。