Structural Concentration of Extreme Precipitation in High-Ω States (Tokyo) — Minimal Reproducible Test

This record provides a minimal, reproducible test of structural concentration in a weather domain.

Using daily precipitation data (Open-Meteo, Tokyo), we test whether extreme precipitation events concentrate in a predefined high-Ω regime under fixed, ex-ante definitions.

Result:

P(collapse | high Ω): 0.48

Baseline: 0.050

Ratio: 9.47×

Ω is defined as:

Ω = I × G

I: rolling standard deviation of precipitation (window = 30)

G: absolute daily change in precipitation

Definitions:

- high Ω = Ω > q(0.99) (execution layer)

- collapse = precipitation > q(0.95)

All definitions are fixed prior to evaluation and are independent (non-circular).

This is not a predictive model.

No optimization is performed.

The result reports conditional frequency, not timing prediction.

Reproducibility:

https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1hCA98FhUjrJd9xYC9c02qm6pjcGpWhWP

Data: Open-Meteo (public)

Code: included in the Colab notebook