International Cigarette Consumption Database v1.3

This database contains tobacco consumption data from 1970-2015 collected through a systematic search coupled with consultation with country and subject-matter experts. Data quality appraisal was conducted by at least two research team members in duplicate, with greater weight given to official government sources. All data was standardized into units of cigarettes consumed and a detailed accounting of data quality and sourcing was prepared. Data was found for 82 of 214 countries for which searches for national cigarette consumption data were conducted, representing over 95% of global cigarette consumption and 85% of the world’s population. Cigarette consumption fell in most countries over the past three decades but trends in country specific consumption were highly variable. For example, China consumed 2.5 million metric tonnes (MMT) of cigarettes in 2013, more than Russia (0.36 MMT), the United States (0.28 MMT), Indonesia (0.28 MMT), Japan (0.20 MMT), and the next 35 highest consuming countries combined. The US and Japan achieved reductions of more than 0.1 MMT from a decade earlier, whereas Russian consumption plateaued, and Chinese and Indonesian consumption increased by 0.75 MMT and 0.1 MMT, respectively. These data generally concord with modelled country level data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and have the additional advantage of not smoothing year-over-year discontinuities that are necessary for robust quasi-experimental impact evaluations. Before this study, publicly available data on cigarette consumption have been limited—either inappropriate for quasi-experimental impact evaluations (modelled data), held privately by companies (proprietary data), or widely dispersed across many national statistical agencies and research organisations (disaggregated data). This new dataset confirms that cigarette consumption has decreased in most countries over the past three decades, but that secular country specific consumption trends are highly variable. The findings underscore the need for more robust processes in data reporting, ideally built into international legal instruments or other mandated processes. To monitor the impact of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control and other tobacco control interventions, data on national tobacco production, trade, and sales should be routinely collected and openly reported. The first use of this database for a quasi-experimental impact evaluation of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control is: Hoffman SJ, Poirier MJP, Katwyk SRV, Baral P, Sritharan L. Impact of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control on global cigarette consumption: quasi-experimental evaluations using interrupted time series analysis and in-sample forecast event modelling. BMJ. 2019 Jun 19;365:l2287. doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.l2287 Another use of this database was to systematically code and classify longitudinal cigarette consumption trajectories in European countries since 1970 in: Poirier MJ, Lin G, Watson LK, Hoffman SJ. Classifying European cigarette consumption trajectories from 1970 to 2015. Tobacco Control. 2022 Jan. DOI: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2021-056627. Statement of Contributions: Conceived the study: GEG, SJH Identified multi-country datasets: GEG, MP Extracted data from multi-country datasets: MP Quality assessment of data: MP, GEG Selection of data for final analysis: MP, GEG Data cleaning and management: MP, GL Internet searches: MP (English, French, Spanish, Portuguese), GEG (English, French), MYS (Chinese), SKA (Persian), SFK (Arabic); AG, EG, BL, MM, YM, NN, EN, HR, KV, CW, and JW (English), GL (English) Identification of key informants: GEG, GP Project Management: LS, JM, MP, SJH, GEG Contacts with Statistical Agencies: MP, GEG, MYS, SKA, SFK, GP, BL, MM, YM, NN, HR, KV, JW, GL Contacts with key informants: GEG, MP, GP, MYS, GP Funding: GEG, SJH SJH: Hoffman, SJ; JM: Mammone J; SRVK: Rogers Van Katwyk, S; LS: Sritharan, L; MT: Tran, M; SAK: Al-Khateeb, S; AG: Grjibovski, A.; EG: Gunn, E; SKA: Kamali-Anaraki, S; BL: Li, B; MM: Mahendren, M; YM: Mansoor, Y; NN: Natt, N; EN: Nwokoro, E; HR: Randhawa, H; MYS: Yunju Song, M; KV: Vercammen, K; CW: Wang, C; JW: Woo, J; MJPP: Poirier, MJP; GEG: Guindon, EG; GP: Paraje, G; GL Gigi Lin Key informants who provided data: Corne van Walbeek (South Africa, Jamaica) Frank Chaloupka (US) Ayda Yurekli (Turkey) Dardo Curti (Uruguay) Bungon Ritthiphakdee (Thailand) Jakub Lobaszewski (Poland) Guillermo Paraje (Chile, Argentina) Key informants who provided useful insights: Carlos Manuel Guerrero López (Mexico) Muhammad Jami Husain (Bangladesh) Nigar Nargis (Bangladesh) Rijo M John (India) Evan Blecher (Nigeria, Indonesia, Philippines, South Africa) Yagya Karki (Nepal) Anne CK Quah (Malaysia) Nery Suarez Lugo (Cuba) Agencies providing assistance: Iranian Tobacco Co. Institut National de la Statistique (Tunisia) HM Revenue & Customs (UK) Eidgenössisches Finanzdepartement EFD/Département fédéral des finances DFF (Switzerland) Bureau of Internal Revenue (Philippines) National Statistical Office of Mongolia

本数据库收录了1970年至2015年的烟草消费数据，数据通过系统性检索结合向各国及相关领域专家咨询的方式采集得到。数据质量评估由至少两名研究团队成员双人复核完成，官方政府来源的数据将被赋予更高权重。所有数据均标准化为香烟消费量单位，并形成了关于数据质量与数据来源的详细说明文档。

针对214个国家开展了全国香烟消费量数据检索，最终获取了其中82个国家的数据，覆盖了全球95%以上的香烟消费量以及85%的全球人口。过去三十年间，多数国家的香烟消费量有所下降，但各国的具体消费趋势差异显著。例如，2013年中国的香烟消费量达250万公吨（million metric tonnes, MMT），超过俄罗斯（36万公吨）、美国（28万公吨）、印度尼西亚（28万公吨）、日本（20万公吨），以及排名紧随其后的35个高消费量国家的消费总和。美国与日本的香烟消费量较十年前下降了10万公吨以上，而俄罗斯的消费量趋于平稳，中国与印度尼西亚的消费量则分别增长了75万公吨与10万公吨。

本数据集与健康指标与评估研究所（Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation）生成的国家级建模数据总体一致，且具备额外优势：不会为了平滑处理而消除年度间的间断性数据，而这一点对于严谨的准实验影响评估而言至关重要。

在本研究开展之前，公开可获取的香烟消费量数据十分有限：要么不适用于准实验影响评估（如建模数据）、由企业私有持有（专有数据），或是分散于众多国家统计机构与研究组织之中（细分数据）。本全新数据集证实，过去三十年间多数国家的香烟消费量有所下降，但各国的长期消费趋势仍存在显著差异。

本研究结果凸显了建立更严谨的数据报告流程的必要性，理想情况下该流程应纳入国际法律文书或其他法定流程之中。为监测《世界卫生组织烟草控制框架公约》（WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control）及其他烟草控制干预措施的实施效果，应常规化收集并公开上报各国烟草生产、贸易与销售相关数据。

本数据库首次用于《世界卫生组织烟草控制框架公约》的准实验影响评估的相关文献为：Hoffman SJ, Poirier MJP, Katwyk SRV, Baral P, Sritharan L. Impact of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control on global cigarette consumption: quasi-experimental evaluations using interrupted time series analysis and in-sample forecast event modelling. BMJ. 2019 Jun 19;365:l2287. doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.l2287

本数据库的另一项应用是对1970年以来欧洲各国的纵向香烟消费轨迹进行系统性编码与分类，相关文献为：Poirier MJ, Lin G, Watson LK, Hoffman SJ. Classifying European cigarette consumption trajectories from 1970 to 2015. Tobacco Control. 2022 Jan. DOI: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2021-056627

### 贡献声明
研究构思：GEG、SJH
多国家数据集筛选：GEG、MP
多国家数据集数据提取：MP
数据质量评估：MP、GEG
最终分析数据筛选：MP、GEG
数据清洗与管理：MP、GL
网络检索：MP（英语、法语、西班牙语、葡萄牙语）、GEG（英语、法语）、MYS（汉语）、SKA（波斯语）、SFK（阿拉伯语）；AG、EG、BL、MM、YM、NN、EN、HR、KV、CW、JW（英语）、GL（英语）
关键信息提供者确认：GEG、GP
项目管理：LS、JM、MP、SJH、GEG
与统计机构联络：MP、GEG、MYS、SKA、SFK、GP、BL、MM、YM、NN、HR、KV、JW、GL
与关键信息提供者联络：GEG、MP、GP、MYS、GP
资助：GEG、SJH

注：作者缩写说明：
SJH：Hoffman, SJ；JM：Mammone J；SRVK：Rogers Van Katwyk, S；LS：Sritharan, L；MT：Tran, M；SAK：Al-Khateeb, S；AG：Grjibovski, A.；EG：Gunn, E；SKA：Kamali-Anaraki, S；BL：Li, B；MM：Mahendren, M；YM：Mansoor, Y；NN：Natt, N；EN：Nwokoro, E；HR：Randhawa, H；MYS：Yunju Song, M；KV：Vercammen, K；CW：Wang, C；JW：Woo, J；MJPP：Poirier, MJP；GEG：Guindon, EG；GP：Paraje, G；GL：Gigi Lin

### 提供数据的关键信息提供者
科恩·范·瓦尔贝克（南非、牙买加）
弗兰克·查洛普卡（美国）
艾达·于雷克莉（土耳其）
达尔多·库尔蒂（乌拉圭）
邦贡·里蒂菲克迪（泰国）
雅库布·洛巴谢夫斯基（波兰）
吉列尔莫·帕拉赫（智利、阿根廷）

### 提供宝贵见解的关键信息提供者
卡洛斯·曼努埃尔·格雷罗·洛佩斯（墨西哥）
穆罕默德·贾米·侯赛因（孟加拉国）
尼加尔·纳吉斯（孟加拉国）
里乔·M·约翰（印度）
埃文·布莱彻（尼日利亚、印度尼西亚、菲律宾、南非）
亚格亚·卡尔基（尼泊尔）
安妮·CK·夸（马来西亚）
内里·苏亚雷斯·卢戈（古巴）

### 提供协助的机构
伊朗烟草公司
突尼斯国家统计局
英国税务海关总署
瑞士联邦财政部门（Eidgenössisches Finanzdepartement, 简称EFD；Département fédéral des finances, 简称DFF）
菲律宾国内税务局
蒙古国国家统计局