Model comparison using leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO) and the widely applicable or Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC).

Model ranking (in descending order) is shown in the first column. The difference between the expected log pointwise predictive density (ELPD) for each scenario and that of the best scenario with standard errors are shown in the second column. In the third column, we have the Bayesian LOO estimate of the expected log pointwise predictive density (ELPD LOO) and its standard error. The LOO information criteria (LOOIC) and its standard error are given in the fourth column. Lastly, the computed Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC) for each model is shown in the fourth column.