The Relationship of the Incidence of Dengue Cases with the Precipitation in the Urban Area of Belém-PA, 2007 to 2011 Through Multivariate Models of Time Series

Abstract It was conducted a mapping study of the areas of incidence and predictions for dengue cases in the urban area of Belém, where the Dengue Incidence Rate (DIR) related to rainfall precipitation was used to forecast dengue occurrences using a multivariate model based on the Box and Jenkins time series methodology. The study period was 5 years (2007-2011). The results of the DIR data analysis and precipitation showed that the increase in DIR is accompanied by an increase in precipitation, demonstrating a direct relationship between these variables in the period under consideration, in the neighborhoods of the urban area of Belém, with greater emphasis in the neighborhoods of Marco, Guamá and Pedreira. The predictive model built for the DIR showed a good fit with satisfactory results and, in this case, can be used to predict dengue.