A state-space concomitant capture-recapture integrated model to improve population parameter estimates of sparse datasets

The present work demonstrated that a state-space formulation of an integrated concurrent marking-observation capture-recapture model (C-MOM) allows for concomitant marking and observing data collection processes, which is a violation of assumptions of classical mark-resight models available, such as the zero-truncated Poisson log-normal mixed effects (ZPNE). To assess C-MOM’s performance under different scenarios, its population parameters’ estimates were compared in terms of bias, precision and accuracy to estimates produced by a classical mark recapture (CMR) (based on Jolly-Seber) and the ZPNE in a virtual ecology study of the rock cavy (Kerodon rupestris). This small colonial rodent presents low capture, but high observation rates. In comparison to the CMR and the ZPNE, the C-MOM presented improved accuracy without overestimating precision. This approach enables scientists studying colonial or gregarious species to produce reliable population parameter’s estimates even budget and time restrictions result in sparse capture-recapture datasets. This analysis might be reproduced by running the R codes in this reprository, in the numbered order. You will need to have the software MARK installed in your computer. It is necessary to change the directory on the copied files before running (i.e. setwd() <- file.path(getwd())).

本研究揭示了将综合并发标记-观察捕获-重捕模型（C-MOM）的状态空间表述应用于同步标记与观察数据收集过程的可能性，此过程违反了现有经典标记重捕模型（如零截断泊松对数正态混合效应模型ZPNE）的假设。为了评估C-MOM在不同情境下的性能，本研究将其种群参数估计与基于Jolly-Seber的经典标记重捕（CMR）和ZPNE在岩狸（Kerodon rupestris）虚拟生态学研究中的估计进行了比较，分析了偏倚、精确度和准确性。岩狸是一种小型殖民啮齿动物，具有低捕获率但高观察率。与CMR和ZPNE相比，C-MOM在保证精确度不过度估计的同时，提高了准确性。该方法使得研究殖民或群居物种的科学家即便在预算和时间限制导致捕获重捕数据集稀疏的情况下，也能生成可靠的种群参数估计。本分析可通过运行本仓库中的R代码进行重现，需按编号顺序执行。使用前，需在计算机上安装MARK软件，并在运行前更改复制文件的目录（例如，使用setwd() <- file.path(getwd())）。